What A Warming December Will Mean For Local Ski Resorts

It’s beginning to look a lot like ski season. After a snowy week throughout northern Michigan, many local skiers and snowboarders are itching to get on the slopes. But some local ski areas still aren’t open, and a spike in temperatures this coming week could pose obstacles. The Ticker checks with multiple up north ski destinations to learn more about their optimal conditions, the science of making snow, and the impact of milder winters on revenues and operations.

The good news? Winter 2021-22 is kicking off with relatively normal temperatures and snowfall. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), northern Michigan had one of its 10 warmest falls on record overall, but dipped back to near-average temperatures in November. In addition, based on December 11 data, Traverse City has already seen 16.8 inches of snowfall this season – more than the 12.4 inches that would typically have fallen by now.

The bad news is the forecast. Highs this weekend have hovered around 40 degrees, and predictions show Traverse City temperatures climbing as high as the mid-50s this week before dipping back below freezing next weekend. These types of freak winter heatwaves – which meteorologists have taken to calling “blowtorches” – can quickly melt through significant snow accumulation.

So how much does blowtorch weather impact ski resorts? Less than you might think – but only if ski areas have banked enough manmade snow before temperatures rise.

According to Chris Hale, vice president of sales and marketing at Shanty Creek Resorts, snowmaking is the most misunderstood part of the ski resort business model. While northern Michigan gets a fair amount of snow – Hale says average snowfall has been around 120 inches for the last 10 years – natural precipitation actually plays a relatively small role in keeping ski resorts running. So even though the area has been seeing drier winters than it once did – for reference, northern Michigan’s snowiest winter ever, 1996-97, saw approximately 200 inches of snow – local ski resorts have held steady thanks to snowmaking capabilities.

“There’s a wonderful science behind manmade snow,” says Sammie Lukaskiewicz, vice president of marketing and communications for Crystal Mountain. “Manmade snow has a density almost four times that of natural snow. So, it’s heavier and takes longer to melt, and it’s more durable.”

In other words, manmade snow is more capable of withstanding warmer temperatures than natural snow. The caveat is that ski resorts can’t make quality snow if conditions aren’t right. Without the proper temperatures, humidity levels, winds, and barometric pressure, Lukaskiewicz tells The Ticker that even a ski resort with a robust snowmaking operation (such as Crystal Mountain’s, which spans 167 snow guns) can’t beat Mother Nature.

“Snowmaking conditions begin at about 27 degrees, colder than what most assume,” Hale concurs. “But a huge factor is humidity. When humidity is high – above 80 percent – it’s very challenging to have snowflakes form, even at 27 or 28 degrees. Typically, the colder it gets, humidity drops too. Once temps are in the high teens, snowmaking becomes much more efficient.”

When those conditions hit northern Michigan, ski areas fire up the snow guns and keep them running until the favorable weather is gone. The goal, Hale says, is “stringing together 24-hour periods of continuous snowmaking.” The more consistently the guns can run, the faster a resort can cover its slopes with snow.

Ski resorts aren’t just making a thin layer of snow, either. Hale notes that Shanty – which opened for the season yesterday – aims to open only slopes “with at least three feet of base”; that much snow “ensures greater level of safety while also protecting against the inevitable January/February thaws.” Crystal Mountain – which opened Friday, with 17 of its 50 runs ready for skiing – shoots for a 36-inch base, too.

Since they’ve been able to make that much snow this season, Shanty and Crystal aren’t sweating the current weather.

“As we get warm temperatures next week, we may lose a few slopes, and we'll adjust our operations as we need to,” Lukaskiewicz says. “Essentially, our philosophy is: ‘We’ll ski on what we’ve got and will make some adjustments as needed.’”

Unseasonably warm temperatures pose bigger problems when they linger for longer in the late fall or early winter, which explains why opening days for skiing can vary so dramatically from year to year. Crystal, for instance, opened on November 15 in 2019 – its earliest opening in 23 years – but had to wait until December 18 last year. The difference? 2019 brought early winter weather that allowed for ample snowmaking, while 2020 saw Traverse City’s third warmest November on record.

But situations like this year – where winter arrives on schedule but gets disrupted by unexpected warm-ups – can be equally challenging for ski areas if they can’t make enough snow before the warm weather arrives. Case-in-point is Traverse City’s Mt. Holiday, which – unlike the region’s other skiing destinations – has yet to announce an opening date.

Last Monday, Mt. Holiday shared a “Snowmaking 101” tutorial on its Facebook page to explain why the ski area hadn’t welcomed skiers back yet. One key difference between Mt. Holiday and other local ski resorts, the post explained, is the proximity of Grand Traverse Bay, less than a mile away.

“[East Bay] keeps warm moist air next to Mt. Holiday at the beginning of the season and those conditions can severely hinder our efforts [to make snow],” the post explained. “Temperatures above 26 degrees with humidity higher than 70 percent are what we consider ‘unfavorable’ conditions. We can make snow but the quantity and quality will suffer. The snow from these conditions will typically be wet when it hits the ground and create undesired icy chunks when it freezes. This snow does not ‘cure’ well and will be difficult to spread out and groom into what skiers deem ‘quality’ snow.”

Mt. Holiday’s snow guns ran from Monday to Thursday, but were powered down on Friday as temperatures went above freezing. The ski area – which did not respond to requests for comment – has still not announced opening plans.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that growing demand for outdoor activities since the start of the pandemic could help ski resorts string together successful seasons even if they lose a few days (or weeks) due to warm weather on either end. When asked whether northern Michigan’s trend toward increasingly erratic winters has impacted revenues, Hale points to a record year for season pass sales at Shanty last season – and an additional 56 percent increase this season already. So long as warm weather stays clustered in the pre-Christmas or spring skiing timeframes, Hale says, the impact is negligible because those periods “are typically not busy ski days.”

“That said, Holiday Week is critical,” Hale adds. “In the Midwest, it’s really hard to make-up for missed dates between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day.”