The population of northwest Michigan rises and falls by 78 percent in the summer, with visitors making up 40 percent of the region’s total population in the peak month of July, according to a new report from Networks Northwest and Beckett & Raeder. The study, the first of its kind since 2014, shows the dramatic impact that the influx of seasonal workers, visitors, and part-time residents have across the region – including on infrastructure, emergency services, and housing availability.

Those impacts – often seen and felt locally but not clearly articulated in data, according to Networks Northwest Community Development Director Rob Carson – are particularly notable in Grand Traverse and Leelanau counties, which have the highest concentration of short-term rentals (STRs) across 10 counties. When Networks Northwest published its first report in 2014 on the region’s seasonal population, it didn’t include data on either STR visitors or seasonal workers. But almost a decade later, “there’s more concrete data that’s readily available” on those categories, says Carson, noting the organization is “much more comfortable with the figures that have come out of this study” due to using updated research methodologies.

The report provides key takeaways on seasonal population numbers across the 10-county area, including Antrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Manistee, Missaukee, and Wexford counties. According to the report, an increase of roughly 295,000 people to the region in the summer is driven “predominately by overnight visitors.” Of the 270,000 visitors who come during the July peak, roughly 82 percent stay at “traditional accommodation businesses like hotels, motels, and campgrounds,” the report states. “The remaining overnight visitors stay in STRs. On a monthly basis, the region averages roughly 4,300 STR listings and roughly 213,000 room nights available.” 

According to the report, the region’s part-time population – people who own second homes in northwest Michigan – increases by 636 percent over just a four-month period, from a low of 13,130 in February up to 96,566 by June. “As a heavily seasonal region, employment levels fluctuate within the region as well,” the report states. “In the month of July, there are an estimated 15,898 seasonal employees in the region, representing 10.4 percent of the total labor force.”

The seasonal changes in population and employment vary by county. The following are a few key findings from the report from the immediate five-county area:

Grand Traverse County: With a permanent population of 95,238 individuals and a peak population of roughly 161,000, Grand Traverse has the largest population in northwest Michigan. Despite having the highest number of overnight visitors of all 10 counties, it also has a more stable permanent population, which never dips below 60 percent of the total population. However, while Grand Traverse County has “one of the lowest counts of part-time residents, indicating that seasonal home ownership is not as prevalent in Grand Traverse County,” the report also notes that some of those seasonal homes “may have been converted into one of the 1,000 STRs in the county. Roughly a quarter of all the STR listings in the region are in Grand Traverse County.” The county also has the most seasonal workers, accounting for 30 percent of the region’s total seasonal workforce in July.

Leelanau County: “Leelanau County experiences the greatest change between the off-season and on-season of any county in the region,” the report states. “The total population grows by a staggering 126 percent, topping out at 60,094 individuals in the month of July. The growth is driven by a large number of part-time residents and overnight visitors.” The part-time population accounts for over 20 percent of Leelanau’s total population in the months of June, July, and August – the largest share of any county. Overnight visitors approach 26,000; while most stay in “traditional accommodation businesses,” Leelanau also has the second-highest concentration of STRs behind Grand Traverse County, accounting for 16 percent of the region’s listings. The number of seasonal workers in Leelanau County reaches a peak of roughly 1,100 workers in July.

Antrim County: In the off-season, Antrim County’s year-round population of 23,431 individuals accounts for over 70 percent of the total population. But in the summer, Antrim’s population nears 60,000 people, “driven by the influx of second homeowners and overnight visitors,” according to the report. STRs host more guests than hotels in Antrim’s off-season due to many businesses closing for the winter. On average, Antrim County’s workforce is 6.4 percent seasonal, but exceeds 15 percent in the month of June, roughly 1,700 individuals. “Housing for seasonal workers is a continuing challenge for many workers and local businesses,” the report states. “A lack of seasonal housing limits the pool of workers to those who live in the area or are lucky enough to find the scarce seasonal units.” Local businesses like Short’s have “taken on the responsibility of securing seasonal housing,” the report notes.

Benzie County: At 17,970, Benzie County has one of the region’s smallest permanent populations. “However, in the month of July, when accounting for the second-home owners and overnight visitors, Benzie County becomes the third-most populous county in the region,” the report states. “The substantial increase in population is primarily driven by visitors staying in accommodation businesses like campgrounds, hotels, and motels. Those saying in STRs also contribute to the boom in overnight visitors, but they only account for roughly 14 percent of the total overnight visitors in the month of July.” For half the year, Benzie’s overnight visitor population is “larger than the permanent population and second-home population combined,” the report states.

Kalkaska County: Kalkaska is another of the region’s smallest counties, with a total population of 42,795 in July. The permanent population of 17,939 accounts for roughly 80 percent of the total population in the off-season and roughly 44 percent in summer. “The seasonal rise in population is primarily driven by overnight visitors who predominantly stay in campgrounds and RV parks,” the report states. “There are very few STRs in Kalkaska County; (they) only account for two percent of the regional listings in the month of July.” Kalkaska also has a “relatively small seasonal workforce, likely because there is only one community in the county (Village of Kalkaska) with a concentration of commercial activity.”

There are both challenges and benefits to living in a highly seasonal region, according to Carson. On the plus side, northwest Michigan is drawing large numbers of visitors even without university sports teams, arenas, or major outdoor entertainment venues. “What we have is natural beauty and resources that account for those (seasonal numbers), and that obviously benefits a lot of industries: food, accommodations, gas, retail, etc.,” he says.

However, the simultaneous surge in visitors and seasonal workers can make accommodations highly competitive and difficult for summer employees to obtain. Businesses modeled on bulking up staffing during summer and scaling back during winter can make it challenging for employees to find stable, high-paying, year-round employment. The “surprising – almost alarming – number of STRs” also worries Carson about the rate at which long-term housing is being converted to vacation rentals. Seasonal population surges can strain emergency and public services, he says; that issue is exacerbated when firefighters, police officers, EMTs, and nurses can’t afford or find housing and thus move away or turn down jobs. Infrastructure is another challenge: Many lakefront homes – built decades ago – lack modern septic systems and were intended for use as single-family homes. Having a high number of visitors rotating through those homes all summer strains those systems, Carson says, eventually posing a risk to local waterways.

According to Carson, the goal of the new report is to help municipal staff, planning commissioners, and elected officials better understand the challenges facing their communities and create policies to address those – from regulating STRs to rewriting zoning rules to encourage more density and year-round housing to investing in infrastructure. The latter notably includes broadband: Young professionals and families will never outpace retirees moving to the area without technology that allows them to work remotely, Carson says. But with broadband investment, workers could spread into more rural areas – places like Copemish, Mesick, Kalkaska, Bellaire, and Boyne City – that have cheaper homes and land, potentially helping alleviate the housing crisis without requiring residents to commute long distances for work.

“When we have concrete data like this, we can try to meet these challenges head-on in a professional context,” says Carson. “These are challenges that our communities need to plan for.”