At least when it comes to enrollment, Northwestern Michigan College (NMC) is on a winning streak.

So says Todd Neibauer, the school’s vice president for student services and technologies. Per Neibauer, NMC’s student headcount is up 3.4 percent this fall, while total contact hours are up 4.8 percent. It’s the fourth consecutive semester of growth – a sign, Neibauer thinks, that recent initiatives at the college itself and at the state level are starting to pay dividends.

Not long ago, it NMC’s enrollment trends were all doom and gloom. The college had nearly 5,200 students at its peak, during the spring 2011 semester, but numbers have been dipping almost ever since. By fall 2018, NMC was down to 2,837 students. The pandemic exacerbated the trend, dropping NMC’s enrollment to the low 2,000s by fall of 2020.

That crisis period caused NMC to reevaluate. Speaking to The Ticker in the spring of 2021, Neibauer said the college was ramping up efforts to attract adult learners. NMC has also doubled down on specialties that not all colleges offer – its aviation, maritime, freshwater studies, and culinary programs are examples – and has explored shorter-form credentials rather than staying solely degree-focused.

Meanwhile, numerous statewide initiatives, like Michigan Reconnect and the Community College Guarantee, have made dollars available for students to attend their local community colleges. Reconnect targets older learners who are heading back to school, while the Community College Guarantee incentivizes recent high school graduates to matriculate to their local community colleges.

Neibauer credits all those factors with helping NMC rebound on the enrollment front. This fall, the college is up to 3,390 students. And while the single biggest demographic is still the typical college student age range – 18-25-year-olds, who account for 57 percent of the student body – nearly one-third of current NMC students (28 percent) are 26 or older.

“We had 115 more 21-plus students this fall than last fall,” Neibauer tells The Ticker. “Michigan Reconnect was likely the big driver of that – specifically, the announcement that the Reconnect extension for 21-24-year-olds was going to end. That program was initially designated for people who are 25 and older without a degree. But the state had some federal money that they used to extend the program for the 21-24 age range, for a limited time. I think the news that the extended eligibility was ending on December 31 probably impacted our fall enrollment.”

While adult learners are where NMC is making its biggest gains, the college’s top challenge is attracting the demographic that used to be its surest source of enrollment: recent or soon-to-be graduates from area high schools. Despite the news this summer that Michigan students “from the class of 2023 and beyond may be eligible” to access tuition-free community college as part of the state’s Community College Guarantee program, Neibauer says he hasn’t seen a huge uptick in younger students applying to NMC.

For example, this semester, NMC’s various digital marketing campaigns led to 1,447 new-student applications. 717 of those came from the college’s “adult learner campaign,” compared to just 291 from the “traditional learner campaign.” (In higher ed, a “traditional learner” is a student who enrolls at a college directly after high school.)

One factor affecting NMC’s traditional learner number is simple demographics. According to MI School Data, Traverse City Area Public Schools (TCAPS) had 10,790 students enrolled across all schools and grades during the 2003-04 school year. By 2013-14, the number was down to 9,872. And by the 2023-24 school year, TCAPS had just 8,656 students– a nearly 20 percent drop over the two-decade span.

In addition, a smaller share of local high school graduates are going to college at all.

“Pre-pandemic, about 63 percent of the high school graduates in our region would head off to higher ed of some kind,” Neibauer says. “The last couple of years, that number has been down around 53 percent.”

And on top of general decline, fewer regional grads are choosing NMC. Of the region’s new graduates who did immediately pursue higher education institution in fall 2022, 32.7 percent selected NMC, compared to 37 percent the previous fall. The rate stayed down at 32.7 percent for fall 2023; a comparable data point for the current semester is not yet available.

One way NMC is hoping to rebuild its connection to local high school grads is through dual enrollment. Under Michigan law, public school districts are expected to foot some of the bill for students who wish to enroll in eligible post-secondary courses – a process known as dual enrollment. According to Neibauer, “students who dual enroll are more likely to go to and complete college than those who haven’t.”

Statistically, Michigan trails behind other states in terms of how many of its high school students are taking advantage of dual enrollment. The Michigan Community College Association (MCCA) is currently pushing legislators to make “statutory changes” to make dual enrollment more accessible and prevalent in Michigan.

Neibauer wants NMC to do its part on that front, too. Based on the way dual enrollment works, Neibauer says local high school students who live “in district” (Grand Traverse County) have typically been able to get their dual enrollment college classes paid for in full. But under the law, public schools are only required to reimburse a certain amount for college classes – an amount that has, until recently, been lower than NMC’s out-of-district tuition rate.

“So, historically, students who were out-of-district would be able to get their school to pay for part of their dual enrollment college coursework but would get a bill for the rest,” Neibauer says. “Unsurprisingly, that was a huge disincentive for parents to enroll their kids in college courses. Last January, we reduced the high school enrolled rate, to make sure that out-of-district students can get the same opportunity with dual enrollment that in-district students have always had.”